Three public data feeds, checked against published mosquito biology. Every rule the forecast uses is listed here, so you can see exactly why it says what it says.
1. Flood tides
Salt marsh mosquito eggs are laid in moist soil, not in water, and hatching depends on flooding by rainfall or tides, according to the University of Florida IFAS. We read observed and predicted high tides from NOAA's Charleston Harbor gauge.
Rule: a high tide at or above NOAA's minor flood stage (7.0 ft above mean lower low water) is a hatch trigger.
2. Soaking rain
Rain floods low ground and fills buckets, saucers and gutters. Container mosquitoes take about 7 days to go from egg to adult, per the LSU AgCenter. Past rain comes from NOAA's Charleston International Airport records; future rain from the National Weather Service.
Rule: 0.5 in. or more of rain in a day is a hatch trigger. This cut-off is our own model setting, not an official standard.
3. Mosquito weather
Climate Central defines a "mosquito day" as one with average relative humidity of 42% or higher and daily low and high temperatures between 50°F and 95°F (Climate Central, May 2023). We apply it to the Weather Service forecast for your ZIP code.
Rule: mosquito weather plus an expected emergence = High. Mosquito weather alone = Moderate. Otherwise Low.
Timing: larvae take 5 to 15 days to develop depending on temperature, and pupae a couple of days more (UF/IFAS). So the forecast expects adults 6 to 17 days after each trigger.